AI’s superpower is creating deterministic products.
We have become fascinated with AI’s “human-like” level of non-determinism. “I’ll just let AI handle it” is quickly becoming a default answer to problems we haven’t fully thought through, because if AI will figure it out, why should I?
One can ask a chatbot almost anything and marvel at what comes back. Give it a problem and it can find a path you did not anticipate. That unpredictability is part of what makes AI amazingly intelligent, and in many situations it is exactly what makes it the revolution in technology we dreamed of for decades.
But in some cases, we are using a sledgehammer to tap in a nail, and it is costing us a chance to provide the right solutions.
When delivering software as a product, the majority of products are not trying to surprise their users to provide value. Creativity sounds universally desirable, but humans require a surprising amount of consistency to be productive. We don’t generally ask our employees, engineers, doctors, lawyers, or PhDs to be randomly creative. We give them a mission, constraints, and some expectation of what a good result looks like. We want coffee on Tuesday morning at 9 AM, even though all the data points otherwise. Random human + informed AI + creative decisions = unhappy people.
AI doesn’t escape our expectations simply because it is intelligent.
A system that generates a different answer every time it is asked and is told to respond in certain ways with generalized prompts can aspire to be remarkably capable, but it can also be remarkably difficult to control, test, explain, package, interpret, and trust.
I don’t say this philosophically. I say it after years of wrangling AI to do things I hoped would create uniquely powerful products that didn’t exist. Why are the products we see so bad at converting this powerful tech into a powerful value prop? “SaaS is dead” encapsulates that problem. Copying and pasting your work into ChatGPT is often better than using a packaged product that tries to leverage the same AI to complete expected tasks efficiently or effectively. Chat is a bit messy, but it leans into that via the chat experience. That messiness is at odds with a packaged product.
I hear it every week from some aspiring entrepreneur: “Give the AI all your data and let it discover and manage [insert problem here].” It is a magical proposition that is within reach now.
Often it can turn into amazing demos and show unbelievable potential. But getting from a controlled demo to a reliable set of actions and outputs, unmonitored and unaudited by a human, is exceptionally hard. Even big companies with big wallets struggle with the transition. Small amounts of drift compound. Mistakes require review. Sometimes understanding what the AI produced takes nearly as much human effort as doing the work yourself, even if the human would have done the work somewhat worse. And don’t get me started on the cost of answering questions with non-deterministic expectations.
Perhaps we solve this. I hope we do. But in building these systems, I came to appreciate another application of AI that I think we’re underestimating.
Allowing the average person to let AI run their business may be a few years away. Building a business or product with AI tooling is already extraordinarily powerful, and not merely because AI lets us build software faster. It lets us afford complexity we previously couldn’t.
Historically, software has been deliberately simplified.
If a problem had a thousand paths, we rarely implemented a thousand paths. Humans had to anticipate the main cases, write the rules, implement them, test the edge cases, and maintain everything afterward. Eventually the economics would win. We scoped down to three possibilities and ignored the rest so that the software would work well for those cases, slowly building up one case at a time as needed.
AI changes the economics of that equation.
We can now use non-deterministic development tools to explore an enormous possibility space, then turn what we learn into deterministic software. A function that would take an immense level of brainpower to create efficiently, effectively, and robustly was expensive to build, let alone maintain as features were added. Now AI not only helps discover the paths, but can create elegant, hardened functions that deterministically handle all the possibilities you give it. Changing that functionality is no harder.
That distinction is more powerful than it initially sounds.
The power is in the fact that humans don’t typically expect to give or get thousands of outcomes from certain problems. Time and time again, we imagine a waterfall of possibilities when reality only requires an eyedropper’s worth of water.
Because of this tendency to overestimate the useful possibility space, 100 possibilities handled deterministically can feel remarkably intelligent. And with static, scalable, deterministic code, you are paying an infinitely smaller cost to solve these problems. It really is the best of both worlds: scalable software, intelligent-seeming computations, and extraordinarily low complexity to build and manage.
We get much of the richness we associate with AI without requiring an AI to improvise every interaction.
This isn’t an argument against live AI. Some problems genuinely benefit from open-ended answers. Chat obviously does. Search, research, documentation, creative work, and assistance are natural places for a system that can respond to questions nobody anticipated when the product was built. I have five bots running all the time to manage my email, calendar, video creation, socials, and more. They need slapping around now and again and require a lot of guidance, but they are far cheaper than hired help and always running 24 hours a day.
The thing I think nine out of ten people miss when the silver-bullet dream of AI is presented is this: infinite possibility isn’t a requirement for every problem.
Often the customer knows what they are trying to accomplish. Most consumers don’t need an infinite number of possible answers for the mountain of information that surrounds them. They need a sufficiently large number of great ones that consistently provide value.
That is the subtle opportunity I missed when I first started building heavily with AI. I was fascinated by AI’s ability to make software non-deterministic. I now think its ability to make deterministic software vastly more expressive may be just as important.
AI has dramatically lowered the cost of deliberate complexity.
Instead of asking AI to decide what our product should do every time it runs, we can use AI to help us consider far more of what it could do while we build it. We can then deliberately decide which of those possibilities it should handle and save ourselves and the customer more money than they thought possible.
The intelligence moves from improvising the product to constructing it.
And sometimes that is exactly where you want it.
